...and the home of the brave
On November 5th, the most critical election of the 2024 super election year will take place: America will elect its 47th president. In the running are incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) and former President Donald Trump (Republican). The contrast between the two could hardly be greater. Once again, the U.S. faces a pivotal decision that not only challenges the nation’s political direction and social fabric but also captivates the world. But what do each of the candidates represent, and what political shifts can we expect?
California Sunshine in DC?
Little has been known about Harris until recently, as she only stepped into the spotlight after Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Kamala Harris made history as the first woman, the first Black, and the first South Asian American to serve as Vice President of the United States. Harris brings decades of experience in law and public service, rising through the ranks as San Francisco’s District Attorney, California’s Attorney General, and U.S. Senator for California.
Known for her advocacy on criminal justice reform, health care, and women’s rights, Harris’ groundbreaking role signals a new era of representation in American politics, positioning her as an influential figure with the potential to shape the nation’s future. However, she has often faced criticism for a lack of clear stances, particularly in terms of concrete political strategies.
Harris is also frequently accused of staying too much in the background. While Trump holds a multitude of rallies, gives interviews, and appears on various U.S. podcasts, appealing especially to younger voters, Harris prefers a more reserved strategy. Conservative critics argue that she avoids longer interviews because they might expose her alleged lack of understanding of complex political issues.
Her most significant strength may lie in her stance on abortion rights: she advocates a progressive view and aims to establish a national right to abortion that transcends state boundaries.
In economic terms, she emphasizes her concept of the "Opportunity Economy," which aims to provide everyone the chance to lead a successful life, free from systemic barriers such as inadequate education or employment discrimination. However, specific details on how she plans to implement this remain unclear.
Foreign policy will be particularly interesting. Currently, there is no clear sense of the direction Harris might take. However, it is likely she will continue to support NATO and maintain good relations with the EU. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Harris is expected to continue backing Ukraine, even though she has not yet presented a clear strategy for ending the war. In the Middle East, Harris is likely to maintain the U.S.’s traditional support for Israel. A major policy shift seems unlikely; she is expected to follow Biden’s approach of publicly urging Israel toward moderation while ultimately granting it considerable latitude.
The Teflon Don
The chosen one. A person of special destiny, almost like an anointed figure — Trump frequently presents himself as that person. This self-image forms the core strategy of his “brand,” Donald Trump.
Trump’s approach can be summarized in three key principles:
- Glamour as a Distraction
- The Power of Sold Fantasies
- Never Admit Defeat and Fight to the End
The glamour factor is a fundamental aspect of Trump’s image: from the gilded curtains of the White House to the luxurious New York penthouses that blend European palace aesthetics with Las Vegas flair. This image of opulence and glamour often distracts from questionable business practices and failures. For many people, especially those no longer benefiting from the capitalist system, Trump has become a fascinating symbol of success and wealth.
In rural areas like the "Rust Belt," where unemployment, crime, and the decline of former industrial centers are part of daily life, Trump enjoys substantial support. Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical swing states, are prime examples of regions that find solace in Trump’s narrative of America’s “golden days.” In his campaign rallies, Trump presents himself as a beacon of hope, for instance by advocating the revival of the coal industry — a promise that leans more toward fantasy than realism. Trump has understood that for many voters, a politician’s intentions now often matter more than actual achievements.
In economic policy, however, Trump offers few innovative solutions. He mainly relies on tariffs to protect the U.S. market from China and the EU, threatening to impose 10–20% tariffs on all foreign products — which could further drive up inflation. For Europe, such tariffs would have dramatic economic consequences, as no other market receives as many European machines and cars as the U.S. Three out of four German-made cars are exported. Trump also encourages German automakers to set up operations in the U.S., offering them lower taxes and reduced bureaucracy — a point Europe should be mindful of.
In foreign policy, the U.S. would likely take a tougher stance under Trump. He is skeptical of continued financial support for Ukraine and has repeatedly stated that he could end the war within months. A peace deal would likely entail significant territorial losses for Ukraine to Russia, and the future of Zelensky’s government would remain uncertain. In the Middle East, Trump strongly backs Israel and Netanyahu, often calling for an even firmer stance and asserting that Israel should “finish the job” once and for all.
Migration remains Trump’s defining issue. The situation at the U.S.-Mexico border is dire, with many people risking their lives in pursuit of a better life. Children regularly drown trying to cross the Rio Grande, and cartels profit immensely from human trafficking. The situation is serious and demands systemic solutions. Yet Trump’s rhetoric does little to help, as he claims that Central American countries are sending their murderers, criminals, and mentally ill to the U.S. Trump even went so far as to allege that Haitian immigrants eat local pets in Springfield.
For Trump, the solution is simple: close the border.
While his border policy and plans for border walls resonate with conservative supporters, a socio-economic reality remains: migration follows capital flows. The West cannot reap the benefits of globalization and simultaneously expect to avoid its social consequences. Even Donald Trump cannot change this reality, and migration will not decrease, even under his presidency.
USA at a Crossroads
With just under two weeks left until Election Day, the outcome is more uncertain than ever. Even though Trump holds a slight lead in current polls, things could change quickly. The election seems to be heading for a close finish, evoking memories of 2020, when Trump declared the election corrupt and urged his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6th, 2021.
In his current speeches, Trump emphasizes that he would only lose if the election were rigged. This undermines the legitimacy of the democratic process from the outset, providing him with an excuse in the event of a loss and further inflaming emotions, which could lead to renewed unrest. Never admitting defeat — that’s Trump’s third principle.
The U.S. is headed for a turbulent fall, one that will test the boundaries of democracy once again, while the rest of the world watches intently.